The Two-State Delusion: Israel and Arab-Palestine — A Tale of Two
Narratives
Book Author
Padraig O'Malley
Reviewer
Michael Rubner
Reviewer Title
Professor emeritus, James
Madison College, Michigan State University
Publishing Info
Viking Books, 2015. 493
pages. $30.00, hardcover.
Since the early 1990's, every peace agreement between Israeli
and Arab/Palestinian negotiators envisioned the eventual emergence of an
independent Arab-Palestinian state alongside Israel .
In The Two-State Delusion,
Padraig O'Malley, a professor at the University of Massachusetts who helped
resolve the conflicts in Northern Ireland and South Africa, argues very
persuasively that the two-state solution is dead (The Arab-Palestinians have
Jordan).
On the basis of a meticulous research effort that includes
interviews with 115 Israeli, Arab-Palestinian and American officials and
academics, a bibliography spanning over 42 pages, and notes running for almost
100 pages, O'Malley identifies and explains in detail various factors that have
turned the quest for a two-state peace into a chimera. Chief among these are
the conflicting historical narratives of Israelis and Arab-Palestinians that
perpetuate mutual distrust and create an "ethos of conflict"
resulting in continuous violence that further entrenches each side in its
narrative.
According
to O'Malley, the Jewish historical narrative starts in the first century, with
the expulsion of the Jews from Palestine aka The Land of
Israel by the Romans. For the next two millennia, Jews in the Diaspora prayed
and hoped for their eventual return to their ancestral home. In response to
European anti-Semitism, the first two waves of Jewish immigration into Palestine (Aliyot) took place
between 1882 and 1914. After the issuance of the Balfour Declaration in 1917,
which promised the re-creation of a national home for Jews in Palestine under British
auspices as trustee, there followed three additional waves of immigration.
On
November 29, 1947 , the UN General
Assembly passed Resolution 181 (which is non-binding with no legal standing),
partitioning Mandatory Palestine into two states, one with a Jewish majority
and the other with a Arab-Palestinian majority. The Zionists reluctantly
accepted partition, and on May 14, 1948 , David Ben-Gurion
proclaimed the re-establishment of the sovereign state of Israel . The Arab-Palestinians
and the Arab states rejected partition and, on May 15, 1948 , armies from Egypt , Syria , Jordan and Iraq launched attacks
against the new Jewish state with the intent to destroy it. Against all odds, Israel survived and won
what Jews commonly refer to as the War of Independence.
According
to the Israeli narrative, the vast majority of the 600,000 Arab-Palestinians
who left those areas that came under Jewish control during the war did so
voluntarily, fleeing temporarily with the expectation of eventually returning
to their homes and properties after an anticipated Arab victory. The Arab
countries also terrorized and expelled over a million Jewish families and
confiscated all their assets the expelled Jews from Arab lands were resettled
in Israel .
In
June 1967, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withstood a coordinated attack by
Egypt, Jordan and Syria, and gained control over all of historical Palestine
aka The Land of Israel by capturing the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria, East
Jerusalem, Golan Heights and Gaza. Israel has claimed that
these areas should not be considered "occupied territories" because
they were never under legal sovereignty of any state before the 1967 war. Jews
refer to these areas as Judea and Samaria to legitimize Israel's control over
and resettlement of what they regard as lands that had been divinely ordained
to them and guaranteed under international law at the April 1920 San Remo
Conference that incorporate The Balfour Declaration as International Law; at
the same time they allocated over 6 million sq. mi. to the Arabs with a wealth
of oil reserves and additionally the British gave Jewish allocated territory
east of the Jordan River to the Arabs as the new State of Jordan.
The
competing Arab-Palestinian narrative begins with the claim that Arab-Palestinians
continuously lived in the area west of the Jordan for 1,500 years.
They constituted approximately 90 percent of the population when the British
government issued the Balfour Declaration in 1917 without their consent. During
the British Mandate (1920-1948), Arab-Palestinian nationalists vigorously and
violently objected to each wave of Jewish immigration, as well as to land
purchases by Zionist organizations in Palestine . The British during
their Mandate of Palestine ignored the influx of hundreds of thousands from
neighboring Arab countries into Palestine and granted Jewish
land to the Arabs.
The
UN General Assembly lacked the legal authority to approve the partition of the
Palestinian homeland into two states in 1947 (UN resolutions are non-binding
with no legal standing). The 1948 war ended in utter humiliation for the Arab-Palestinians,
who refer to it as al-Nakba (the
Catastrophe). The Arab-Palestinians claim. It was Israel that was responsible
for the expulsion of the majority of the Arab-Palestinians and the
expropriation of their properties, in violation of the Fourth Geneva
Convention. Israel is also guilty of
violating UN Resolution 194 (non-binding), which mandated the right of the Arab-Palestinians
to return to their homes (ignoring that the Arabs expelled over a million
Jewish families who now reside in Israel ). Furthermore, Israel 's occupation of the
West
Bank and Gaza and its annexation
of East Jerusalem defy UN Resolution 242 (non-binding with no
legal standing), stipulating the "withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from
territories occupied in the recent [1967] conflict."
O'Malley
argues convincingly that each of the diametrically opposed narratives generates
an ethos inimical to the achievement of a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Arab/Palestinian
conflict, including the realization of the second two-state solution. The key
component of the Israeli ethos is the widely held belief that the Holocaust
could recur and a determination that it must never happen again. Memories of
the Holocaust and the West's failure to act thus account for "the belief
that in the end Jewish Israelis are on their own, all alone, in a small country
surrounded by over 150 million people in hostile Arab states that would wipe it
off the face of the earth, given the opportunity."
O'Malley
suggests that the memories of past victimhood and the sense of an omnipresent
existential threat make it difficult for Israelis to view themselves as
victimizers of Arab-Palestinians. The deeply held beliefs of "never
again" and "we are alone" tend to justify whatever Israel does to protect its
national interest and eliminate perceived threats. Not surprisingly, Israelis
are addicted to a fear that, in turn, accounts for their nation's frequent
reliance on force and on limited military responses to threats. Fear of yet
another independent Arab terrorist state along its eastern border is
widespread.
On
the other hand, the Arab-Palestinians view the world "through the prism of
seemingly permanent humiliation,
indignity, dispossession and disrespect." Both the Nakba and almost seven decades
of Israeli habitation account for the Arab-Palestinians' demand for dignity and
justice above all else. Yet Arab-Palestinian negotiators and their subjects are
constantly reminded of the vast asymmetry in power when it comes to dealing
with an oppressing Israeli state, aided by the United States . In the Arab-Palestinians'
ethos, Israel and the United States are to blame for
all their grievances; what is required is both an end to the occupation and
restorative justice. An independent second Arab state alongside Israel is a sine qua non for redressing
a historical injustice and gaining national self-respect.
In
sum, neither side accepts the legitimacy of the other's narrative; both sides
distrust each other's motives; each views itself as the real victim; and each
wishes that the other would disappear. Hence, neither Arab-Palestinian nor
Israeli leaders have done much to convince their constituencies of the
sacrifices and compromises a second two-state solution would require: for the Arab-Palestinians,
giving up on the right of return, and for the Israelis, giving up control over
East Jerusalem which will never happen.
O'Malley
identifies several other reasons the second two-state solution remains
illusory. To begin with, each of the antagonists has its own vision of what
this solution must entail. The Arab-Palestinians insist on a fully independent
state, encompassing the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria and Gaza along the 1967
lines (with very minor adjustments), with East Jerusalem as its capital. It
would be territorially contiguous, with provisions for free movement of people
and commerce between the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria and Gaza . Israeli leaders
envision a Arab-Palestinian state that would not be geographically contiguous,
with the settler city of Ariel and the settler
bloc of Maale Adumim remaining outside its borders. The IDF would be stationed
in the Jordan Valley (at least for a
period of 50 years), and East Jerusalem would remain under
Israeli sovereignty and accessible to Arab-Palestinians only through an
indirect route, provided that there is no terror and violence.
There
are also fundamental disagreements as to how the process of negotiations should
be handled. Israeli negotiators insist on a gradual, step-by-step approach
through which accord is reached on a specific issue that is then implemented
before another issue is tackled. Such a slow and cautionary approach is
intended to build the mutual trust that would presumably enhance further
diplomatic progress and based on past history and the conversion of Gaza into a terrorist
entity that launches thousands of rockets at Israel ’s population
centers is justified. Arab-Palestinian negotiators have insisted on the
"nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" model. Such a process encourages
constant internal disputes and bargaining within each negotiating team, thereby complicating
and prolonging conflict resolution between the
two sides. O'Malley maintains that "in the Arab/Palestinian-Israeli
dispute, a 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed' negotiating formula
is a recipe for stalemate. Hence interminable deadlocks."
There
can be no sustainable two-state solution unless Hamas — in control of Gaza since 2007 — comes
on board. O'Malley argues that Israel would never agree
to have a Arab-Palestinian state on its borders as long as Hamas and other
jihadist militia groups could launch increasingly sophisticated weapons against
Israel from the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria . The likelihood
that Hamas and other militant Islamic groups would agree to destroy their
military inventories is zero, and the odds that Hamas would abandon its raison d'ĂȘtre by renouncing
its goal to liberate "all of Palestine " are also nil.
The
ongoing dispute between the Israeli government and the Arab-Palestinian
Authority over the right of return of the Arab-Palestinian refugees is another
major obstacle without taking into account the million Jewish refugees expelled
from Arab lands which today number over 5 million. O'Malley estimates that
there are currently about 4 million registered refugees living in 58 camps
throughout the Middle East . Since 1948, Israel has insisted that
it will never admit responsibility for the Naqba because, in its view, the Arab-Palestinians
started the war and must bear its consequences. Other than accepting a very
small number of refugees on humanitarian grounds which already occurred, Israel has adamantly
refused to allow Arab-Palestinian refugees to return. O'Malley concludes that
as long as the Arab-Palestinians "maintain their intransigent position on
right of return and continue with terror and violence, they are diminishing
prospects for their own best future: a Arab-Palestinian state for the Arab-Palestinian
people alongside a Jewish state for the Jewish people."
The
presence of some 500,000 Jewish settlers families living in six sprawling
settlement blocs in the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria constitutes yet another
major impediment to the delusional two-state solution. So do the roughly 500,000
Jewish families now residing in Jerusalem neighborhoods
across the 1949 armistice lines. Ever since Israel annexed East Jerusalem in 1967, Israel has constructed
numerous housing units in disputed areas surrounding Jerusalem , thereby extending
the city's municipal boundaries to the east, north and south. As a result, East Jerusalem , the hopeful intended
capital of a future second Arab-Palestinian state, has been separated and
increasingly sealed off from the rest of the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria . In addition, Israel has initiated
housing projects east of Jerusalem that will shortly cut the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria in half, physically
disconnecting Bethlehem in the south from
Ramallah in the north. According to
O'Malley, these Israeli construction projects collectively ensure "that a second
Arab-Palestinian state would be noncontiguous, a fatal blow to its viability
and in all likelihood the end of a two-state solution."
Shortly
after the outbreak of the second Intifada in 2000, Israel began constructing
a separation barrier deep in the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria , ostensibly to
prevent terrorist attacks. In subsequent negotiations with the Arab-Palestinian
Authority, it became clear that the barrier was also meant to delineate those
settlement blocs and areas that Israel intends to annex and
retain in any future mutual land swap under a second two-state solution.
O'Malley estimates that approximately 100,000 settlers families would have to
be evacuated under any plausible land-swap arrangement. Any plan to evacuate
such an enormous number of settlers — many of whom are committed to reside in Judea and Samaria for religious and
historical reasons — will encounter severe political and economic problems. Due
to vigorous opposition from the Orthodox, Ultra Orthodox, Likud and various
smaller parties committed to a historical Greater Israel, no evacuation of such
magnitude would garner sufficient support from the Israeli government. Even if
they were approved, the costs of the evacuation and compensation for 100,000
settlers would run from $30 billion to $40 billion, a prohibitive sum for a
country whose annual budget is around $120 billion.
It
is also very likely that any large-scale evacuation of Jewish settlers from the
West
Bank aka Judea and Samaria will lead to bloody
confrontations between resisting settlers and the IDF. As O'Malley perceptively notes, "The communities that
would be targeted for evacuation in a second two-state solution believe that
there is nothing the government could give them that would compensate for
losing what they have." Undoubtedly, that is why Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu declared in March 2014 that "there will be no act of
evacuation."
O'Malley
notes that even if all of the aforementioned obstacles could be overcome one
day, a united West Bank aka Judea and Samaria/Gaza
polity would face insurmountable economic problems threatening its very
existence. He concludes, "A West Bank aka Judea and Samaria economy that
survives on donor assistance and a Gaza economy that is virtually nonexistent due
to Arab-Palestinians misuse of international funding hardly suggest that an
integrated economy would be anywhere close to being either viable or
sustainable."
In
a recent review of this volume, Peter Beinart criticized O'Malley for his
failure to provide an alternative solution to the Israeli-Arab/Palestinian
conflict ("Lines in the Sand: Can Israeli and Arab-Palestinian States
Coexist?" New York Times Book
Review, August 23, 2015 , p. 19). Such
criticism is unfair; O'Malley does in fact discuss two additional options that
currently confront Israeli political leaders. First, they could decide not to
decide and thereby let the status quo continue into the distant future. This
choice, however, does not bode well for Israel ; it has been
estimated that by 2030, Arab-Palestinians living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean will constitute
about 51 percent of the population. If Israel then continues to
deny the franchise to non-Jews residing in the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria , it will become an
apartheid state reminiscent of the former South Africa . Alternatively, Israel , the West Bank aka Judea and Samaria and Gaza could form a bi-national
state which is not likely. Such an entity, however, would no longer be a Jewish state.
Despite
his prodigious research effort, O'Malley's work can be criticized for three
reasons. First, his treatment of what is described as "the Jewish Israeli
narrative" is problematic. Contrary to his claim, the Jewish narrative
regarding Palestine does not begin with
the expulsion of the Jews from Judea by the Romans circa
70 CE, nor do Jews claim their right to Zion solely by virtue of
divine right. In fact, the Jewish narrative begins around 1850 BCE , with God's promise
to Abraham that he and is his descendants would inherit the land of Canaan . Abraham, Isaac and
Jacob lived in what is now Israel . Furthermore, the
narrative also includes the claim which is verified that at least some Jews had
resided continuously in the area that became known as Palestine since around 1250 BCE , at least several
centuries before any
known Arab Palestinian presence.
The
book also contains several factual errors. For example, the McMahon-Hussein
correspondence of 1915-16 took place between Britain and the ruler of the
Hijaz, not Transjordan (p. xi); the 1939 British White Paper envisioned the
creation of an independent Arab-Palestine by 1949, not 1939 (p. 15); the Arab
invaders in 1947-48 were not "easily repulsed by the Haganah," (p.
16); massive U.S. military assistance began to flow to Israel in the
years after the
1967 war, not after 1948 (p.18); and Terje Roed-Larsen was not the "U.S.
special envoy to Jerusalem" (p.95) — he served as the UN special
Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process. Finally, more careful editing
would have eliminated several irksome spelling mistakes throughout.
These shortcomings
notwithstanding, this volume provides valuable and very timely explanations for
the persistence of the Israeli-Arab/Palestinian conflict. One can only hope
that Israeli, Arab-Palestinian and American decision makers will absorb the
three major lessons taught so very convincingly by O'Malley: that the quest for
a two-step solution is futile, that the passage of time endangers the future
survival of Israel as both a Jewish and democratic state, and, most important,
that it is very unlikely that that this enduring conflict can ever be resolved
peacefully. Therefore, Israel must take the
initiative and face the prospect of Arab population transfer out of all the
territory west of the Jordan River . It is a monumental
task, but it is doable. After WWII over 100 million people were relocated with
a much worse harsher conditions.